Wouldn't it be great to sweep a hundred thousand years of evil under the rug, and create a world with unlimited free time and entertainment? A world with plenty of competition but no real losers. Everything would be easy. Could such a thing ever happen?
No society has ever tried to become a real utopia. It would have been much too boring for those in charge, and required a rather unacceptable sacrifice: some form of genetic testing for all, plus mandatory birth control.
The political 'isms' that dominated the twentieth century have been mere power grabs by sociopathic status-seekers; pyramid schemes built on forced labor. Muslim countries are only slightly less authoritarian. The USA remains forever a work in progress, and Europe is draining whatever remains of its entrepreneurial spirit.
Some 'lucky' places like Singapore came close in a few ways, but they suffer from hidden social stresses.
The fact is there's no excuse to be poor. The basic requirements for human life are quite simple for those willing to be frugal. There is no homelessness problem or famine problem. There are only politician/cleric problems: but these are profound indeed.
The goal of the coming decades should be to create an age of abundance. In theory it wouldn't be that hard.
The biggest challenge will be to reduce the rigid grip of ancient prejudices.
Step one: Birth control
Every society, no matter how restrictive, allows its members the right to expand their families without government interference. Even North Korea and China wouldn't dare suppress that basic instinct.
People who are allowed only a few freedoms are more likely to abuse them. Africa is straining under the burden of its burgeoning population. Crime and anarchy run rampant. Indian Ocean fishing stocks are collapsing. Soil erosion and drought are causing worldwide famines. 90% of humanity owns less than 10% of the wealth.
Why do the poor have (m)any children? That question is far more likely to trigger outrage at the asker than to receive a reply. Like most evolutionary side effects, it just happens. Many lives are simply too stressful or not valuable enough to plan ahead.
If people could consciously control their wombs or sperm, the birth rate would plummet. In conservative regions, condoms and birth control pills are prohibited by order of the local gentry. Parents who can't even support themselves won't have happy offspring.
The importance of stress in human history is vastly underestimated. 'Helpful' advice, direct aid, or constructive criticism only cause anger. Instead of 'solutions' which create more stress, many would prefer fewer problems instead.
In that case, the best answer is to do nothing. Nothing could be easier than not reproducing. Measured over a lifetime, the amount of avoided stress is incalculable.
Aid agencies could reward people who won't perpetuate their genes and their problems, by requiring aid recipients to get temporarily sterilized. The subsequent aid would still be expensive, but it wouldn't have to continue for endless generations. Who knows what horrors it would avoid?
Suffering or desperate people would happily give up their genetic futures to escape their troubles, as anyone who has worked with refugees or asylum seekers can attest. Often they're barely able to think straight.
This plan would work even better if only women were eligible for aid. With some medical assistance, one man could easily impregnate all women, but one woman can't bear the children of every man, at least not in the same universe.
The immediate goal would be to prevent mass famines, catastrophic civil wars, and new epidemics from arising.
The human population might drop faster than expected this century, reducing the scope of the upcoming disasters and die-offs. China's mandatory one-child policy has led parents to emphasize quality over quantity, at least in the large urban regions, with a significant increase in literacy and economic growth, though per capita productivity remains far below US levels.
Needless to say, groups that require a steady influx of new members oppose birth control in all its forms.
Step two: Simplicity
No one realizes how bad things can get. We're able to measure the steady increase in carbon dioxide, but the upcoming climate changes and subsequent melting of the icecaps will be locally chaotic. Some coastal regions may have to be evacuated in a hurry.
Only conservation and miniaturization can prevent a disastrous environmental collapse. We need to use less space more efficiently. A world of tiny cars, narrow streets, pod houses. Homeless people everywhere would rather live in a tiny apartment than under a giant overpass. Making things somewhat smaller can make them much cheaper - an inverse power law.
Residents of the Chinese coastal provinces, Latin America, South East Asia, and the endlessly teeming slums of West Africa could have the same quality of life as middle-class Americans, while using much less resources.
Such a change-over would be profoundly unpredictable. The world may lose all its current incentives, destabilizing currencies and financial markets, even shifting the international power balance.
There's a reason why prequels are more popular than sequels. Many people would actually prefer a simpler existence, the right to figure things out for themselves.
A simple lifestyle is not only less stressful, but also more interesting. Life could be like an adventure.
That means the (often non-existent) right to make informed mistakes, including alternative or substandard housing, food, or other products; mind altering and recreational drugs; and even medical experiments.
Closer to the state of nature, what matters most is the absence of violence; whether perpetrated by the environment, criminals or the government. People need independence and responsibility to live meaningful lives. Civilization should be the outcome, not the goal.
There are almost as many possible lifestyles as there are individuals. It might be easier to start with an undeveloped plot of land, and fill it with modular construction that doesn't require paid help to install or repair.
Often, the best solutions are the simplest. Perhaps human rights need to be extended, so that everyone can have the minimum they need to survive. Everyone on earth should be able to instantly receive a tiny apartment; a plastic living box with a water ration and high-carb food allowance. In order to pay for this assistance and prevent the ecosystem from filling up, the recipient would probably have to agree to be temporarily sterilized.
Step three: The VR solution
Reality sucks? Create a better version.
Virtual Reality could solve all current problems except mental decline and death. Everyone could have the experience of great wealth without the environmental impact.
A simulation-based lifestyle will be much cheaper in the long run, allowing a larger human population to exist, or maybe just a simulated larger population.
By itself, population increase can be a good thing. It would be vastly more interesting to live in a society with a trillion citizens, in which every group can express itself. A million TV networks are better than five.
The trick is to learn to live inside a box. We're still waiting for the breakthrough concept. It may be a new state of mind, something the user must want to learn.
VR users will be manipulated into acting out pre-determined scenarios. An extremely detailed description of the new reality demands the user's undivided attention. They may even forget they're in a simulation.
Read more here and here.
Step four: Technology
The tools already exist to end the age of scarcity.
Cheap mass production, automation, information technology, and world trade could bring about a 'post-historical' era.
The current arrangement of nation states is extremely inefficient. A worldwide common market would allow more and larger supply chains. More available components also means more advanced tools.
The problems of our immense population can only be solved with extremely elaborate transport and trade networks, more nuclear power, more efficiency and conservation, and vast capital reserves. The solution will also require education reforms and worldwide connectivity.
Simple but efficient tools will be the most useful, especially in irrigation, transportation, and construction. More distant goals, like the future colonization of the Sahara, will require unprecedented investments.
Step five: Property rights
The Bible or some distantly related source suggests 'love is all you need', but a backup plan is called for.
A successful utopia must harness perhaps the second strongest human emotion (after the desire for normalcy, but ahead of fear): greed. Freedom is self-interest, the driving force behind progress.
Property rights are the true foundation of society. These rights already exist everywhere, but are usually poorly enforced. If someone isn't sure they can keep their hard-earned income, they won't work as hard.
Third World strongmen at every level, from tyrants-for-life to roadblock entrepreneurs, confiscate whatever resources they can for themselves. New taxes in Russia sometimes exceeded 100%. Major Colombian gold mines were seized by rebels. Anyone foolish enough to travel through West Africa can expect to be roadblocked and 'worked over' hundreds of times. If they're lucky, they'll only lose their valuables.
Government corruption breeds lawlessness. It doesn't mean everyone is killing each other, just that investment has become pointless.
Development aid and loans have probably worsened the Third World's problems. Meant to bridge short-term investment gaps, they've brought crushing debt instead. In this environment, theft of all types can only increase.
Property rights are the hardest problem in economics. How do we even know the existing property distribution is fair? No one has 'created' real estate, so why should anyone be allowed to own more than they need to live on? Every acre has forcibly changed hands many times.
Most ill gotten gains can never be recovered.
Property rights also imply the right to assume debts, but not everyone can handle this responsibility. Lies and deception are used to make borrowers misjudge costs and benefits. Entire generations have been enslaved to pay off the debts of their ancestors. Better known examples include lottery tickets, adjustable loans, and inflation. Many debtors wish they hadn't had quite so many 'rights'.
Property rights are one of the hardest benefits to consistently guarantee. It's easier to take stuff than to make stuff. It will require a worldwide effort of reduced tariffs, cross-border investments, and most of all the suppression of powerful interest groups.
Seemingly reasonable changes can backfire, since no one fully understands how incentives work. There is a big difference between owning $100 million and $200 million. The incentive to earn more money gets stronger as the need declines.
Perhaps everyone should have a secret offshore bank account.
Step six: A world constitution
The Universal Rights of Man (revised).
A civilized world is incompatible with the continued existence of weapons of mass destruction. They will have to be eliminated at some point.
Since most countries don't have them, they would be willing to pay a price to see their stronger potential enemies give them up. All nations will have to surrender some sovereignty, but their citizens could become freer in the process.
The next step will be much harder. The very notion of a world constitution will probably remain unthinkable until the 2020s, and much longer in the USA. Imposing democracy or capitalism won't work. All mankind would be bound by only two laws:
Freedom of Location
Anyone could depart whatever area they find themselves in, but other areas wouldn't be required to admit them.
Freedom of Inspection
UN inspectors could visit any location, and report any threats to humanity or to other countries they find there.
There would be no other world laws.
The future won't be all good. Humanity has already experienced incomprehensibly dire situations. As the world becomes more elaborate, the potential for new suffering may increase beyond all understanding. This is of course the greatest danger of the field of Artificial Intelligence, as will be shown later.
To prevent the potential horror scenarios of the future, law enforcement will need to know everything about everybody. The surveillance and vigilance would be strictly functional. The 'World Police' would only have the power to prevent certain types of terrorist attacks, without otherwise interfering with people's lives in any way. The only way to minimize the risk of abuse is to distribute authority as widely as possible. Future nations may not even have heads of state anymore.
In the end, it will be a race between the historical trends of global integration and increasing diversity.
A related article:
eight utopian ideas
The best hard SF novel ever written: Infinite Thunder by Jack Arcalon.
Buy the book
Read the chapters
|