The Drake Equation was designed to estimate the number of human-level (or higher) civilizations in the observable universe. To evolve a state of even minimal awareness, life must surmount many hurdles. The equation implies that for every advanced civilization, there must be many habitable planets with only simple animals, and even more that are covered with moss, or oceans with single-celled organisms, or no life at all.
If solved correctly, the last few terms of the Drake Equation place a lower bound on the number of advanced societies on distant planets. This 'civilization bottleneck' is usually considered the most difficult part of the equation.
According to the article 'Extraterrestrial science' by Nicholas Rescher, some additional terms need to be added to the end of the Equation. It turns out humanity had to squeeze through more bottlenecks than anyone had suspected. This makes it more likely we're the only broadcasting civilization for a billion lightyears in any direction.
The reason is that there are too many possible futures, and most of them don't need the scientific method.
Only a small minority of societies will have managed the strange combination of order and chaos that have defined human history. Even on Earth, most societies didn't focus their efforts on science or technology but on culture. Western civilization followed a very unlikely path: powered by fundamental imbalances, including genocides and other atrocities, Western civilization stole or borrowed many ideas from its predecessors around the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the Far East.
Constant technological progress can be counterproductive. Wait long enough, and disaster is inevitable. For the better part of a century, Western, and now world civilization, has embraced technologies with the potential to destroy itself. Only dumb luck has prevented nuclear armageddon.
If the worst had come to pass, civilization would first have crashed and then slowly rebuilt itself using a more sustainable model. Science and most technologies would have been outlawed.
Even without a terminal catastrophe, progress is a suspect notion.
Beings in a state of nature don't agonize as much and don't look ahead at their inevitable doom. Only when they have 'evolved' do they realize their shortcomings. Then they may collapse in despair, or invent religion.
When agriculture was first invented, most farmers ended up with a lower quality of life than hunter-gatherers. During the so-called Dark Ages and later the human population crashed several times, but individual life expectancy increased.
Today, mankind has amazing technology, but no control over (or even insight in) any of the fundamental human drives, emotions, and most importantly, learning and communication methods.
Most alien civilizations may be just the opposite.
Mankind may be an unlikely outgrowth of evolution, a 'strange path', a cancer or a virus or perhaps a useful tool.
According to this theory, a typical alien civilization won't care about expanding through space or trying to communicate with outsiders. Instead of inventing new technology, they may be inwardly focused: improving rigid caste hierarchies; building better temples, data exchanges, arenas, or indoctrination centers; trying to perfect their ideal society with ever increasing dedication. They won't be afraid to repeat themselves.
The universe may be filled with such self-improving societies, turning their planets into paradise parks.
The notion of internal conflict would be as strange to them as to an ant colony.
Their cultures might look like meaningless static from the outside. Outsiders would somehow have to become part of them to begin to understand them.
A philosophical system, or even the structure of a language, can be more important than any technology if it can manipulate the minds of its users.
Such a society wouldn't and couldn't invent completely new tools to replicate beyond its natural limits or spread through the universe.
No one knows how they would interact with another species that's technologically more advanced but socially backward. They might be able to absorb any visiting technological civilization, merely by 'infecting' them with their social knowledge.
Perhaps they will transform the future descendants of humanity into their servants, while letting the servants think they're in charge.
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Hard SF novel: Infinite Thunder by Jack Arcalon.
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